India Needs Strategic Risk Management Amid West Asia Conflict, Says EAC-PM Chairman
India must identify key chokepoints, mitigate both supply & price risks: EAC-PM Chairman S Mahendra Dev
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to risk management in light of the West Asia conflict. He advocates identifying economic chokepoints and mitigating supply and price risks across key sectors like energy and food to bolster India's resilience.
- 01India must identify key economic chokepoints to manage risks effectively.
- 02The West Asia conflict has highlighted India's vulnerability to commodity shocks, particularly in oil.
- 03A transition to renewable energy is essential for reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
- 04Current inflation remains contained at around 3%, but could rise with prolonged conflict.
- 05Maintaining a growth trajectory of 6-7% requires a revival of private investment.
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S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, has called for a comprehensive risk management strategy in response to the ongoing conflict in West Asia. He highlighted the need for India to identify critical economic chokepoints in sectors such as energy, food, fertilizers, metals, and critical minerals to mitigate both supply and price risks. The conflict has revealed India's exposure to commodity shocks, particularly in oil markets, but current indicators suggest that the Indian economy remains resilient, with inflation contained at around 3%. However, a prolonged conflict could push inflation to 4-4.5%. To bolster resilience, Dev recommends expanding strategic reserves and diversifying sourcing and trade routes. He also emphasizes the importance of transitioning to renewable energy to reduce structural dependence on fossil fuels. The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to ensure currency stability and support affected sectors, while the government is maintaining buffer stocks of food grains to stabilize prices amid potential agricultural impacts from El Nino. For India to achieve a sustainable growth trajectory of 6-7%, a revival of private investment will be crucial.
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The measures proposed by S Mahendra Dev could help stabilize prices and ensure food security for Indian consumers, particularly in light of potential agricultural impacts from climate changes.
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