The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a historic supply shock, yet oil prices remain below $100 a barrel. This stability is attributed to record US crude exports, a notable decline in Chinese demand, and various emergency measures including the release of strategic reserves. US exports in May were over 2 million barrels per day higher than the previous year, while China, the largest oil importer, cut its imports by almost 40% in May, offsetting the loss of over 10 million barrels per day from the Middle East. Despite these measures, global inventories are depleting rapidly, raising concerns about future supply disruptions. Industry experts caution that the current buffers cannot last indefinitely, with predictions of tightening supplies leading to potential price spikes. The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with the US administration leveraging its energy resources to stabilize markets while navigating complex international relations, particularly concerning Iran. As the situation evolves, the fate of oil prices may hinge on China's demand recovery and the resolution of ongoing conflicts in the region.