Treasury Yields Surge to 12-Month High, Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Average
The two- and ten-year Treasury yields hit a 12-month high. Bitcoin is still stuck below its 200-day average.
Coindesk
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U.S. two-year and ten-year Treasury yields have reached their highest levels since mid-2025, driven by rising inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average, facing pressure from these rising yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies and gold.
- 01The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.05%, while the ten-year yield reached 4.5%, both at their highest since mid-2025.
- 02Futures markets now indicate a 44% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, a significant increase from just 22.5% a week earlier.
- 03Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,000, still below its 200-day moving average of about $82,000.
- 04The tokenized Treasury market has seen its on-chain value exceed $15 billion, benefiting from rising yields.
- 05Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, favored by Donald Trump for a leadership role, is perceived as more amenable to aggressive rate cuts.
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U.S. Treasury yields for both the two-year and ten-year notes have surged to 12-month highs, reaching 4.05% and 4.5%, respectively. This increase follows unexpected inflation data, prompting traders to anticipate that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period or even implement further hikes. Currently, futures markets assign over a 44% probability of a rate increase by December, a stark contrast to earlier expectations of rate cuts. The rising yields are exerting pressure on non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold, as investors reassess the attractiveness of these investments against risk-free Treasury securities. Bitcoin is trading around $81,000, remaining below its critical 200-day moving average of approximately $82,000. Additionally, the tokenized Treasury market is thriving, with its total market value surpassing $15 billion, as investors seek yield-bearing government debt. Amidst these developments, attention is shifting toward potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, particularly with Trump advocating for a successor more inclined to favor lower rates.
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The rise in Treasury yields may lead to higher borrowing costs and affect investment strategies, particularly for those holding Bitcoin and gold.
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