Pharmaceutical Sector Faces Mixed Q4 Outlook Amid Revlimid Sales Decline
Pharma Q4 outlook mixed: Hospitals steady, generics face revlimid drag
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
The pharmaceutical and healthcare sector is expected to show mixed results in the March quarter, with hospital chains like Apollo Hospitals demonstrating steady growth, while generic drugmakers face challenges due to declining Revlimid sales. Companies like Lupin and Divi's Laboratories are poised for strong performance, whereas others like Cipla and Dr. Reddy's may struggle.
- 01Hospital chains are expected to report steady growth, particularly Apollo Hospitals.
- 02Generic drugmakers are under pressure due to the absence of Revlimid-related sales.
- 03Lupin is projected to see strong revenue growth, while Divi's Laboratories will benefit from contract development demand.
- 04Cipla and Dr. Reddy's may experience significant declines in revenue and margins.
- 05Overall, the sector's Ebitda is expected to remain flat with potential margin contractions.
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The pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector is set for a mixed performance in the March quarter, with hospital chains anticipated to show steady growth. Apollo Hospitals is expected to benefit from strong traction across its hospitals, pharmacy, and diagnostics segments, with revenue growth supported by new bed additions and increased average revenue per patient. In contrast, generic drugmakers are facing challenges, particularly due to the absence of Revlimid sales, which is expected to impact companies like Aurobindo Pharma and Dr. Reddy's. Aurobindo Pharma is projected to report single-digit revenue growth, with a notable decline in US sales attributed to Revlimid. Dr. Reddy's is likely to see a significant decline in Ebitda, estimated at 28-30%, due to reduced gRevlimid business and one-time shelf stock adjustments. On the other hand, Lupin is expected to deliver strong growth, driven by products like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron, with an anticipated Ebitda jump of around 50% year-on-year. Divi's Laboratories is also poised for growth, benefiting from custom synthesis and a recovery in nutraceuticals, despite a decline in generic API sales. Overall, the sector's Ebitda is projected to remain flat, with margins facing pressure from increased research and development spending.
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The mixed performance of the pharmaceutical sector could affect job stability and revenue streams for healthcare providers and generic drug manufacturers, impacting employment and service availability.
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