NOAA to Release 2026 Hurricane Forecast Amid Uncertainty
NOAA's long-awaited hurricane forecast is coming soon. What to know.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will unveil its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 21. Early predictions indicate a slightly below-average season, influenced by warm ocean temperatures and the developing El Niño phenomenon, which may suppress hurricane activity. The forecast will also include preparation advice for residents in hurricane-prone areas.
- 01NOAA's forecast will be announced at 11 a.m. ET on May 21, 2026, at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida.
- 02The typical Atlantic hurricane season averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven becoming hurricanes.
- 03Colorado State forecasters predict six hurricanes for the 2026 season, with only two expected to reach Category 3 or higher.
- 04El Niño is expected to influence the hurricane season by increasing wind shear in the Atlantic, potentially reducing hurricane formation.
- 05Current sea-surface temperatures are above normal, which can enhance tropical storm development despite El Niño's effects.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is set to release its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 21 at 11 a.m. ET. This forecast follows several months of predictions from private forecasters, which suggested a slightly below-average hurricane season due to a combination of warm ocean temperatures and the developing El Niño phenomenon. NOAA's forecast will provide insights into anticipated hurricane activity, which typically averages around 14 tropical storms and seven hurricanes per season based on historical data from 1991 to 2020. Colorado State forecasters predict six hurricanes for the upcoming season, with only two expected to reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). El Niño's impact is significant, as it typically leads to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, which can suppress hurricane formation. Despite these predictions, experts caution that even a less active season can still pose serious threats to communities in hurricane-prone areas. The forecast will also include public safety advice as the hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
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Residents in hurricane-prone areas should prepare for the season despite predictions of a below-average hurricane activity.
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