Private Banks Poised for Recovery Amidst Public Sector Challenges, Says Bernstein
PSBs down, pvt banks set for comeback: Bernstein
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Pranav Gundlapalle from Sanford C. Bernstein suggests that while State Bank of India (SBI) faces margin pressures, private sector banks are set for a comeback in FY27. Despite recent underperformance, private banks exhibit solid fundamentals, and loan growth is expected to converge as market conditions stabilize.
- 01State Bank of India's net interest margin fell sharply due to strategic credit allocation.
- 02Private banks are expected to outperform public sector banks in FY27 despite recent stock underperformance.
- 03Tighter liquidity and high funding costs may cap net interest margin recovery.
- 04Bernstein favors HDFC Bank and Axis Bank among private sector stocks.
- 05Expected Credit Loss provisioning norms could impact public sector banks in FY28.
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Pranav Gundlapalle, Director and Senior Research Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, highlights a significant decline in State Bank of India's (SBI) net interest margin, attributed to a strategic shift towards high-rated corporate credit. This approach, while compressing yields, has resulted in stronger-than-expected loan growth. Gundlapalle believes this margin decline is a one-time occurrence that will normalize in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, private sector banks, despite their recent stock price underperformance, are showing robust operational metrics. Gundlapalle anticipates that private banks will continue to outperform public sector banks in FY27, although the gap in loan growth is expected to narrow. He notes that foreign investor outflows have contributed to the underperformance of private banks, but these cyclical factors are likely to reverse. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate cuts have largely impacted bank earnings, and tighter liquidity is now keeping funding costs high, potentially limiting margin recovery. Gundlapalle's top stock picks include HDFC Bank for its resilient earnings and Axis Bank for its tactical positioning. He also expresses confidence in affordable housing lenders and Paytm as a promising investment in the payments sector. Overall, while banking fundamentals stabilize, stock performance will depend on the return of foreign flows to India.
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The performance of private banks could lead to more stable lending rates and potentially better loan options for consumers, impacting homebuyers and businesses seeking credit.
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