The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has warned that most countries in South Asia are likely to experience below-average rainfall during the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season, primarily due to the anticipated development of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The forecast, released during the SASCOF-34 meeting in the Maldives, aligns with projections from the India Meteorological Department, which estimates seasonal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average. The expected rainfall deficit will affect countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of Sri Lanka. However, certain areas in north-west India and southern Sri Lanka may receive normal or above-normal rainfall. SASCOF officials noted that while El Niño significantly influences monsoon patterns, other climate factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic sea surface temperatures also play a crucial role in determining rainfall outcomes. The forum, which includes representatives from nine South Asian nations and various international meteorological organizations, aims to provide consensus forecasts to help manage the region's climate challenges.