Recent increases in fuel prices and higher import duties on gold and silver are projected to raise India's retail inflation to approximately 5% by June. Petrol prices have surged by ₹7.38 per litre and diesel by ₹7.48 per litre over an 11-day period starting May 15, directly impacting transportation and storage costs. Economists, including D K Srivastava from EY India, suggest that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could rise by about 75 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain a cautious stance, refraining from adjusting interest rates until the impact of the fuel price hikes stabilizes. The RBI's monetary policy committee is anticipated to keep rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting, despite rising wholesale price index (WPI) inflation. Analysts predict that if CPI inflation surpasses 5%, the RBI may consider tightening monetary policy. Overall, inflationary pressures are largely attributed to supply-side factors, including elevated fuel costs and a weaker rupee, which the RBI will monitor closely.