The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning regarding the global oil supply, predicting a shortfall of 1.78 million barrels per day by 2026 due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has severely disrupted oil production across West Asia. The war, particularly the US-Israel conflict against Iran, has damaged oil infrastructure and effectively closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, leading to the worst oil supply crisis in recorded history. The IEA's latest report indicates that the oil supply will be approximately 3.9 million barrels per day lower throughout 2026, a significant revision from its previous estimate of a 1.5 million barrels per day drop. The agency anticipates that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of the third quarter of 2026, with a potential supply shortfall of 6 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Additionally, global oil inventories have decreased by 246 million barrels during March and April, contributing to increased price instability. The IEA notes that a collaborative effort among 32 member countries led to the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in March to help stabilize the market, of which 164 million barrels have been released so far.