An El Niño event is increasingly likely to peak over the New Zealand summer, with Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning of significant risks including drought, extremely hot days, and wildfires. The WMO has indicated an 80% chance of an official El Niño developing this winter, while ESNZ estimates a 95% likelihood. This weather phenomenon occurs due to warmer-than-usual waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to altered rainfall patterns. Regions like Canterbury and Hawke's Bay, which have already experienced dry conditions, may face further challenges as below-normal winter rainfall could hinder groundwater recharge. ESNZ's principal forecasting scientist, Chris Brandolino, emphasized the potential for intense weather events, urging those in agriculture and water-dependent sectors to prepare for the upcoming dry conditions. The outlook remains fluid, and monitoring forecasts will be crucial for those affected.