Exit Polls Favor BJP in West Bengal and Assam: Market Outlook
Exit polls predict edge to BJP in West Bengal & Assam. How will stock market react tomorrow?
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Exit polls indicate a slight advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal and Assam, suggesting potential market volatility. While Assam's BJP-led NDA is projected to secure 88-101 seats, West Bengal polls suggest a range of 142 to over 200 seats. Market reactions may be muted due to macroeconomic factors despite political developments.
- 01BJP projected to win 88-101 seats in Assam's assembly elections.
- 02West Bengal exit polls suggest BJP could secure between 142 and over 200 seats.
- 03Market signals indicate a cautious start with GIFT Nifty down over 100 points.
- 04Analysts expect localized impacts on sectors like banking and infrastructure based on election outcomes.
- 05Broader market trends are influenced more by macroeconomic factors than state-level political changes.
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Exit polls conducted after voting in West Bengal and Assam suggest a favorable outcome for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In Assam, two major exit polls, Axis My India and JVC, estimate 88-101 seats for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 126-member assembly, while Congress and its allies are trailing. West Bengal polls show varied results but indicate a possible BJP majority, with estimates ranging from 142 to over 200 seats. Despite this political backdrop, early market indicators are cautious, with GIFT Nifty down over 100 points, suggesting a muted start for domestic equities. Analysts, including Vishnu Tripathi from Garud Investment Managers, note that while exit polls can create short-term volatility, the overall market direction is more influenced by macroeconomic factors such as earnings growth, inflation, and interest rates. The recent market rally, which saw the Sensex gain over 600 points, was attributed to strong corporate earnings rather than political events. However, global concerns, including high crude oil prices near $110 per barrel, foreign institutional outflows, and a weak rupee, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Technical analysts point out that the Nifty index is at a critical juncture, with immediate support at 24,150 and 23,900, while resistance is noted at 24,350 and 24,550. Overall, the market's reaction to the exit polls is expected to be selective, particularly affecting stocks linked to infrastructure and regional spending.
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The projected election outcomes may influence state-level policies, impacting sectors like banking and infrastructure, which could affect local investments and job creation.
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