According to a recent report by Citi, global oil markets are significantly underestimating the risks associated with supply duration and geopolitical tensions. The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially reach $150 per barrel in a bullish scenario. The ongoing conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are identified as major factors contributing to this price surge. The report emphasizes that both the Iranian regime and the United States are unlikely to reach a diplomatic resolution soon, with a formal agreement not expected before July. The Iranian regime's strategy appears to involve maintaining disruptions to maximize future oil revenues while balancing the need for improved internal economic conditions. Furthermore, the report warns that if current oil output losses continue for six months, global oil spending could increase by an additional $5 trillion to $6 trillion, pushing expenditures to levels comparable to the 1979 oil shock. Beyond energy, inflationary pressures are anticipated to affect food security due to supply chain disruptions and adverse weather patterns.