IMD's Revised Monsoon Forecast Could Dampen Agricultural Output in India
IMD's revised monsoon forecast to impact agricultural output: Report
Image: Asianet Newsable
The India Meteorological Department's revised forecast predicts a below-normal southwest monsoon at 90% of the Long Period Average, impacting agricultural output and food inflation. The Monsoon Core Zone, which contributes significantly to India's food production, is expected to face severe rainfall deficiencies.
- 01The IMD has revised its monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average, down from 92%.
- 02The Monsoon Core Zone, including Gujarat and Rajasthan, accounts for nearly 40% of India's food production and is likely to experience below-normal rainfall.
- 03Rain-fed crops such as pulses and coarse cereals are particularly vulnerable due to low irrigation coverage.
- 04Reservoir levels are currently at 31% of total capacity, higher than the long-term average of 26%.
- 05Food inflation risks are projected to rise towards 5% in FY27, driven by higher prices for pulses and edible oils.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating potential negative impacts on agricultural output, rural demand, and food inflation. The forecast includes a 60% probability of deficient rainfall during the June-September period, with the Monsoon Core Zone—comprising states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh—expected to be significantly affected. Rain-fed crops, particularly pulses and coarse cereals, are at high risk due to limited irrigation coverage. While reservoir levels are currently above the long-term average, the report warns that food inflation could rise to 5% in FY27, influenced by weather-related disruptions and global commodity prices. The evolving El Nino conditions may further complicate the agricultural landscape, making the upcoming kharif season critical for determining overall crop yields and economic trends.
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The revised monsoon forecast may lead to reduced agricultural output, impacting food supply and increasing prices, particularly for vulnerable crops.
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