Brent crude oil prices have surged to $114 per barrel, signaling a significant tightening in the oil market due to severe inventory drawdowns and supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has labeled the current situation as the largest supply outage in global oil market history, with production losses in the Gulf reaching at least 10 million barrels per day. In March alone, global inventories dropped by 85 million barrels, with non-West Asia stocks declining at a rate of 6.6 million barrels per day. This tight physical balance is reflected in the market's backwardation, where the front-month contract is priced significantly higher than deferred contracts. Analysts suggest that unless supply normalizes, prices may need to rise further to suppress demand, potentially reaching levels between $135-150 to induce demand destruction. The IEA anticipates that if disruptions persist, inventories could hit all-time lows by late April or early May. The market may face two scenarios: a return to normal supply levels or continued constraints leading to higher prices. The price floor for Brent is expected to shift from its pre-crisis level of $60 to a new range of $75-80 over the next 18-24 months, with prices projected to stabilize between $105-125 through the second half of 2026 if geopolitical tensions persist.