Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve following a narrow Senate vote of 54–45. Despite his confirmation, prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, suggest a 56% likelihood that President Donald Trump will publicly criticize him before the end of the year. This potential backlash stems from Warsh's previous support for Trump's views on interest rates being too high, raising concerns among Democrats about his independence. Warsh has indicated plans to implement significant changes at the Fed, including retiring the core personal consumption expenditures index, a key inflation measure used for the past two decades. The relationship between Trump and outgoing Chair Jerome Powell has been fraught, with Trump previously stating he would fire Powell if he did not resign. As inflation remains high, traders are assigning a 31.8% probability to a Fed rate hike by January 2027, which could rise to 37% by April 2027.