Economist Warns of Impending Food Crisis Due to Fertilizer Supply Disruptions
Oil Maybe The Big Story Right Now, But The Next Story Is Food, Warns Economist: 'If Fertilizer Is Caught On The Wrong Side Of The Strait Of Hormuz...'

Image: Benzinga
Economist Justin Wolfers warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant rise in food prices due to increased fertilizer costs. Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, have surged, impacting farmers and potentially pushing millions into food insecurity if tensions escalate.
- 01Urea prices have doubled since February 2026, reaching approximately $900 per metric ton.
- 02About one-third of global nitrogen fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
- 03The World Bank predicts a potential 31% rise in fertilizer prices by 2026.
- 04A prolonged conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute food insecurity this year.
- 0548% of Americans reported higher-than-expected grocery prices in March 2026.
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Economist Justin Wolfers highlighted the potential for rising food prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are currently affecting oil prices and fertilizer costs. In a recent post on social media, he emphasized that the focus on oil might overshadow the looming food crisis. Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, have skyrocketed, doubling to approximately $900 per metric ton since February 2026. This increase is alarming given that about one-third of the global nitrogen fertilizer trade relies on the Strait of Hormuz. The World Bank has projected that fertilizer prices could rise by 31% in 2026, exacerbating affordability issues for farmers and potentially leading to reduced farm income and lower future harvests. If geopolitical tensions continue, the World Bank warns that up to 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity this year. Additionally, a recent poll indicated that 48% of Americans experienced higher-than-expected grocery prices in March 2026, reflecting the broader economic pressures stemming from these developments.
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Rising fertilizer costs are likely to increase food prices, affecting farmers' income and leading to higher grocery bills for consumers.
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