Indian IT Sector Expected to See 20-30% Returns, Cautions Against Long-Term Growth
IT stocks could return 20-30% from here, but don't expect a structural bull run: Sandip Agarwal
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Sandip Agarwal, Fund Manager at Sowilo Investment Managers, predicts a potential 20-30% return for the Indian IT sector in the near term, while cautioning that sustained double-digit growth is unlikely. He highlights a disconnect between deal wins and revenue growth, urging investors to avoid companies heavily involved in engineering research and development.
- 01Agarwal forecasts a potential 20-30% return for Indian IT stocks in the near term.
- 02He notes a disconnect between high deal wins and sluggish revenue growth.
- 03AI is expected to reduce operational costs but will lead to revenue deflation over time.
- 04Investors should avoid companies with significant exposure to engineering research and development.
- 05FY27 is anticipated to show better performance than FY26 for major IT firms.
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Sandip Agarwal (Fund Manager and Co-founder at Sowilo Investment Managers) believes the Indian IT sector is poised for a 20-30% index-level return in the near future. He notes that while companies like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have reported record Total Contract Value (TCV) of $12 billion, revenue growth remains sluggish due to a disconnect between deal wins and actual revenue, a situation exacerbated by enterprise clients' indecision regarding IT budget allocations. Agarwal estimates that AI will reduce operational requirements by 20-30%, translating to a 3-4% annual revenue deflation over the next few years. However, he maintains that large IT firms can achieve 6-7% dollar revenue growth, leading to an annual earnings per share growth of 13-14%. He advises investors to focus on traditional IT services and avoid companies with heavy engineering research and development exposure, which currently face greater risks. Looking ahead, Agarwal expects FY27 to outperform FY26, marking a recovery for the sector.
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Investors in the Indian IT sector may see significant returns, but should be cautious about long-term growth expectations and specific sector exposures.
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