Is Putin's War on Ukraine Leading to His Downfall?
After four bloody years, the war on Ukraine might be turning into Putin’s undoing | Rajan Menon
The Guardian
Image: The Guardian
Context
The conflict in Ukraine began in 2014, escalating significantly with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The war has resulted in heavy casualties and economic repercussions for both Russia and Ukraine, with ongoing military operations impacting domestic stability in Russia.
What The Author Says
The author argues that Putin's prolonged war in Ukraine, marked by significant military failures and economic strain, threatens his hold on power.
Key Arguments
📗 Facts
- As of April 2024, an estimated 1.3 million Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict.
- Russia's GDP shrank by 0.3% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026.
- In March 2024, Russia's unemployment rate was reported at 2.2%, but economic growth fell from 4.9% in 2024 to 1% in 2025.
📕 Opinions
- The author suggests that the war, initially seen as a potential triumph for Putin, may instead lead to his political downfall.
- The author interprets the tightening of Putin's security measures as a sign of his increasing vulnerability and fear of domestic unrest.
Counterpoints
Putin's regime has historically shown resilience.
Despite setbacks, the Russian government has a track record of maintaining control during crises, which could continue.
Public support for the war may still be strong.
Many Russians may still support the war effort, viewing it as a necessary response to perceived threats from the West.
Military strategies can adapt over time.
The Russian military may find new strategies or technologies that could change the current dynamics of the conflict.
Bias Assessment
The author's perspective is critical of Putin's leadership and the war's impact, potentially overlooking any positive developments within Russia.
Why This Matters
The war has entered its fourth year, with recent developments indicating a shift in momentum that could affect Putin's regime. Economic pressures and military setbacks are increasingly visible within Russia.
🤔 Think About
- •What alternative strategies could Russia employ to turn the tide of the war?
- •How might public opinion in Russia shift if economic conditions worsen?
- •What are the implications for global security if Putin's regime were to fall?
- •Could Ukraine's military successes lead to overconfidence and strategic mistakes?
Opens original article on The Guardian
Advertisement
In-Article Ad
Reader Poll
Do you believe Putin's war in Ukraine will lead to his downfall?
Connecting to poll...
