Morgan Stanley has adjusted its growth forecast for India's economy, predicting a 6.2% increase in real GDP for the fiscal year 2026-27, down from an earlier estimate of 6.5%. This revision is primarily attributed to the impact of elevated global crude oil prices, which have surged by 30-40% following the escalation of the Iran-US conflict. The brokerage anticipates that crude oil prices will average $95 per barrel in FY27, with the potential for severe economic consequences if prices spike to $150 per barrel. In such a scenario, GDP growth could plummet to 5.7%, retail inflation may exceed 6%, and the current account deficit could widen to approximately 3% of GDP. India, which imports 85% of its crude oil, faces significant risks from sustained high oil prices, with its import bill potentially reaching $200 billion if current trends continue.