India's state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are suffering substantial losses, estimated at nearly ₹30,000 crore per month, as they maintain fuel prices while global crude oil prices soar due to ongoing crises in West Asia. Currently, petrol and diesel prices in Delhi stand at ₹94 and ₹87 per litre, respectively, despite significant under-recoveries of ₹26 per litre for petrol and ₹81.90 for diesel. Rating agency Icra warns that if crude prices remain elevated at around $120-125 per barrel, OMCs could face negative marketing margins and cumulative under-recoveries could reach ₹80,000 crore by FY27. Experts suggest that the sustainability of this price freeze hinges on crude oil prices, fiscal support, and inflation management. With cash flows already impacted and over ₹1 trillion accumulated in under-recoveries over the past 70 days, OMCs may need to increase borrowing and defer capital expenditures, jeopardizing long-term energy infrastructure projects. Economists indicate that any retail price hike will depend on macroeconomic conditions and the government's timing, as inflation remains a critical concern. The government may have to explore options like cutting excise duties or compensating OMCs if retail prices remain unchanged, reflecting a delicate balancing act between consumer protection and corporate viability.