The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in Iran could lead to over 32 million people falling into poverty globally, with developing nations facing the brunt of the impact. The report highlights a looming “triple shock” characterized by soaring energy prices, escalating food insecurity, and a slowdown in economic growth, all of which threaten to reverse hard-won development gains. Since the US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices have surged, disrupting global oil and gas supplies and affecting fertilizer and shipping, which raises concerns about a food crisis in vulnerable regions. The UNDP outlines three scenarios regarding the economic fallout, with the worst-case scenario suggesting that 32.5 million individuals could fall below the World Bank’s upper-middle-income poverty line of $8.30 per day. Approximately half of this increase in poverty is expected to occur in 37 energy-importing countries across the Gulf, Africa, Asia, and small island developing states. Alexander De Croo, UNDP administrator, emphasized the enduring impact of the conflict, even if a ceasefire is achieved, particularly on poorer nations. He advocated for targeted cash transfers to help those at risk of falling back into poverty, estimating a need for $6 billion to support affected households. The report also warns against blanket subsidies, which could disproportionately benefit wealthier households. As richer nations manage their economic challenges better, developing countries face greater hurdles due to limited financial resources and cuts in aid spending from Western governments.