The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has created unprecedented disruptions in the global crude oil market, with Brent crude prices settling around $108 per barrel as of May 5, significantly up from pre-war levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has termed the current situation the largest supply shock in oil market history, with countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) collectively shutting in 9.1 million barrels per day in April. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, remains effectively closed, leading to a drastic reduction in oil flows from 20 million barrels per day in February to just 3.8 million barrels per day by early April. The UAE's recent exit from OPEC+ is seen as a structural shift, potentially increasing market volatility and weakening price stability. Demand is projected to decline, with the IEA revising its outlook for 2026 to a contraction of 80,000 barrels per day. Analysts predict that if the conflict continues for another eight weeks without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Brent prices could escalate to between $130 and $145 per barrel.