India's wholesale inflation hit 3.9% year-on-year in March 2023, marking a significant rise from 2.1% in February and the highest level in 38 months. This surge is attributed to soaring crude oil and energy prices amid ongoing tensions in West Asia. Economists anticipate that inflation will continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting it could reach 4.7% to 4.8% in April. The increase in wholesale prices is primarily driven by a 51.6% spike in crude oil prices, which reversed a previous decline. Additionally, the fuel and power segment saw a positive inflation rate of 1.1%, compared to a contraction of 3.8% in February. Supply disruptions have raised input costs for various products, including sulphuric acid and brass, contributing to the overall inflation increase. Core WPI inflation, which excludes food items, also rose to a 41-month high of 3.7%. Looking ahead, analysts warn of further inflationary pressures, particularly due to potential disruptions from a weak monsoon linked to El Niño conditions, with projections of WPI inflation averaging around 3.5% to 5% this fiscal year.