Study Reveals Preferences in Uncertain Decision-Making: Risk vs. Reward
Risk or Reward: What’s the First Thing People Want to Know When a Decision Is Uncertain?

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A study led by Uma Karmarkar at the University of California San Diego reveals that when faced with uncertain decisions, a majority of individuals prefer to see risk information before potential rewards. This tendency can lead to increased skepticism and disengagement from the decision-making process.
- 01The study involved over 6,700 participants across 11 experiments.
- 02Approximately 60 to 70% of participants preferred to see risk information first.
- 03Ambiguity-averse individuals showed a stronger preference for risk information over rewards.
- 04Viewing risk information first often led to reduced spending and increased likelihood of disengagement.
- 05The findings suggest a disconnect between consumer preferences and marketing strategies that emphasize rewards.
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In a recent study published in the *Journal of Experimental Psychology: General*, Uma Karmarkar, a behavioral scientist at the University of California San Diego, explored how people make decisions under uncertainty. The research aimed to determine whether individuals prefer to see potential rewards or the associated risks first. Across 11 experiments with over 6,700 participants, findings revealed that 60 to 70% of people favored viewing risk information prior to potential rewards. This preference was particularly pronounced among those who are more sensitive to ambiguity. Notably, when participants encountered risk information first, they often exhibited increased skepticism and were less likely to proceed with purchasing decisions, such as buying a lottery ticket. The study highlights a potential conflict between consumer information preferences and marketing practices, suggesting that while companies may focus on showcasing rewards to drive engagement, many consumers prioritize understanding risks to mitigate uncertainty.
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