NOAA Predicts Below-Average Hurricane Season for the US in 2026
US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts

Image: The Guardian
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a below-normal hurricane season for the US in 2026, predicting 8 to 14 named storms and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Factors like warm ocean temperatures and a developing El Niño could influence storm activity, while concerns about the US's preparedness for hurricanes remain significant.
- 01NOAA predicts an 80% chance of a moderate to strong El Niño developing, which could impact storm activity.
- 02An average hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
- 03John Morales, a meteorologist, warns that the US is unprepared for hurricane season due to staffing cuts in critical forecasting agencies.
- 04Private forecasting companies estimate 11 to 16 named storms, with some predicting a near-average season.
- 05Despite a below-average forecast, NOAA emphasizes that preparedness remains crucial, as even one storm can be devastating.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced a prediction for a below-normal hurricane season in 2026, estimating between 8 to 14 named storms and 1 to 3 hurricanes reaching category 3 or higher. The forecast comes just before the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs indicated a 55% chance of below-normal activity, influenced by a developing El Niño, which is expected to have a 98% chance of occurrence this season. While the eastern Pacific is expected to experience above-normal storm activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, concerns have been raised about the US's preparedness for hurricanes due to staffing cuts in the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA. Experts warn that these cuts have compromised the country’s ability to accurately forecast severe weather. Despite the below-average predictions, meteorologists stress the importance of preparedness, as even a single storm can have catastrophic impacts. The ongoing climate crisis could lead to more extreme fluctuations in hurricane activity, making vigilance essential.
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The predictions indicate that while the overall storm activity may be lower, the potential for severe weather remains, necessitating preparedness among coastal communities.
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