Bitcoin's recent decline of roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak is consistent with historical cycles, which have shown similar patterns over the past decade. This decline is attributed to several factors, including ETF outflows and the selling of Bitcoin by institutional holders like Strategy. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle, with peaks occurring in late 2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025, followed by troughs approximately 12 months later. The current market dynamics suggest a potential low in Q4 2026, coinciding with significant IPOs from companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, which could temporarily divert capital from cryptocurrencies. The liquidity dynamics are expected to shift post-IPO lockups, potentially providing a tailwind for Bitcoin as newly liquid insiders may reinvest in higher-risk assets. Overall, while the current decline appears steep, it aligns with historical trends and may set the stage for a recovery in the coming years.