According to the latest exit polls by Today’s Chanakya, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to achieve a 48% vote share in the upcoming 2026 West Bengal elections, marking a 10% lead over the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is expected to secure 38%. This potential shift is significant in India's electoral landscape, where even slight differences can lead to substantial seat advantages. The BJP's rise is attributed to strong support from Scheduled Castes (67%), Other Backward Classes (61%), and Scheduled Tribes (53%), while the TMC maintains a solid base among Muslim voters at 71%. If these trends persist, the BJP could win approximately 192 seats, well above the majority threshold of 147. This electoral shift could indicate a deeper political realignment in West Bengal, challenging Mamata Banerjee's long-standing dominance. The final results will be determined on May 4, 2026.