According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to remain in a bear market until Q4 2026, adhering to its historical four-year cycle despite recent developments such as ETF adoption and institutional investments. In his May 25 podcast, Cowen discussed how Bitcoin's latest peak mirrors previous cycles, noting that BTC typically reaches its high in Q4 of the post-halving year before entering a correction phase. He emphasized that the current cycle's peak occurred within a week of historical timing models, contradicting the belief in a 'supercycle' driven by spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases. Cowen also pointed out that Bitcoin's price behavior during periods of apathy does not invalidate the potential for a bear market, drawing parallels with S&P 500 cycles from the 1960s and 1970s. He predicts continued weakness for Bitcoin in summer 2026 and a possible cycle low in October or Q4 2026, reinforcing the notion that the market is overcomplicating the cyclical narrative.