Polymarket Bettors Clash Over Bitcoin Sale Timing Amid $79 Million Dispute
Strategy sold bitcoin in late May, and told the market in June. Here's how Polymarket bettors are fighting over when it counts.

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A $79 million bet on Polymarket revolves around whether Strategy (MSTR) sold bitcoin by May 31, 2023, or if the sale's public disclosure on June 1 counts. Bettors are divided into three camps, debating whether the sale date or the announcement date should govern the outcome.
- 01Strategy sold 32 bitcoins between May 26 and May 31, 2023, but disclosed the sale on June 1, leading to a dispute.
- 02The Polymarket contract asks if the sale occurred 'by 11:59 PM ET' on May 31, creating ambiguity over whether the sale date or confirmation date matters.
- 03One camp argues the market should resolve 'Yes' based on the sale occurring within the timeframe, while another insists that confirmation must precede the deadline.
- 04Polymarket has endorsed the 'No' interpretation, stating that confirmation outside the timeframe does not qualify.
- 05UMA token holders will ultimately decide the outcome, as they have previously diverged from Polymarket's resolutions.
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A significant $79 million bet on Polymarket is centered on whether Strategy (MSTR) sold bitcoin by May 31, 2023, or if the subsequent public disclosure on June 1 counts as the defining factor. The dispute arises from Strategy's filing, which indicates that 32 bitcoins were sold between May 26 and May 31, but the formal disclosure occurred after the deadline. Bettors are split into three main camps: one believes the sale date is critical and should resolve 'Yes,' while another argues that only confirmed information available by the deadline should count, thus leading to a 'No' resolution. A third group claims the rules were too vague to make a clear decision at this time. Polymarket has clarified its stance, supporting the 'No' interpretation, which has led to a significant drop in the contract's 'Yes' pricing. The final decision will rest with UMA token holders, who have shown a tendency to diverge from Polymarket's judgments in the past. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices have fallen below $71,000 as the market reacts to Strategy's first disclosed sale.
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