According to Moody's Ratings, India and other oil-importing nations are expected to negotiate bilateral agreements to secure energy supplies, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. The report indicates that a return to pre-war oil traffic levels is unlikely by 2026, as the Strait has experienced a more than 90% drop in maritime traffic due to the conflict. Moody's anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile, fluctuating between USD 90 and USD 110 per barrel, which will have significant implications for economic growth and inflation. Specifically, India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 0.8 percentage points to 6%, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports, which account for approximately 46% of its crude oil needs. The report also highlights that inflation in India is expected to average 4.5% in 2026, marking a 1 percentage point increase from earlier predictions. The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are now viewed as a structural supply constraint rather than a temporary shock, complicating monetary policy and increasing production costs across energy-intensive sectors.