Brent crude prices have experienced a dramatic rise, peaking at $126.4 per barrel in April 2026, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran. This shift from a potential supply glut to supply fears has significantly impacted the oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a decline in global oil supply by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand is expected to contract for the first time since 2020. Upstream oil companies, such as ONGC and Oil India, are benefiting from these higher prices, with analysts noting that every $5 per barrel increase can boost their earnings per share by 8-10%. Conversely, oil marketing companies (OMCs) in India are struggling with stagnant retail fuel prices, leading to estimated losses of ₹12 per litre on diesel and ₹10 per litre on petrol. Despite improvements in refining margins, the overall profitability of OMCs is under pressure, and their earnings are expected to remain volatile. The natural gas market is also facing challenges, with spot LNG prices rising 21.3% quarter-on-quarter due to supply disruptions. Analysts predict that the oil market will remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with prices expected to stabilize between $70 and $85 per barrel if tensions ease.