Sberbank Predicts 3% Decline in Russian Consumer Lending for First Half of 2026
Consumer lending in Russia to contract by 3% in 1H — Sber
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Sberbank forecasts a 3% contraction in Russia's consumer lending market during the first half of 2026, following a decline that began in September 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated in the second half, with the market expected to stabilize by year-end.
- 01Sberbank's First Deputy Chairman Kirill Tsarev predicts a 3% decline in consumer lending in the first half of 2026.
- 02The decline follows a prolonged downturn starting in September 2024, but a recovery is expected in the latter half of 2026.
- 03Sberbank's consumer loan portfolio has shown signs of recovery since April 2026.
- 04The bank anticipates a growth of approximately 6% in its consumer loan portfolio by the end of 2026.
- 05The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, where these insights were shared, runs from June 3-6, 2026.
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At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Sberbank's First Deputy Chairman Kirill Tsarev announced that the consumer lending market in Russia is projected to contract by approximately 3% in the first half of 2026. This decline is part of a longer trend that began in September 2024, although Tsarev noted that the rate of decline has been slowing. A moderate recovery is expected in the second half of 2026, which should counterbalance the initial decrease, leading the market to stabilize by the end of the year, reaching levels comparable to late 2025. Sberbank has already begun to see positive trends, with its consumer loan portfolio starting to recover since April 2026, and expects a growth of about 6% in this portfolio by year-end, surpassing the average market growth rate. The ongoing forum, themed
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The contraction in consumer lending could affect consumer spending and economic growth in Russia.
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