Forecast Predicts Record-Setting El Niño Could Intensify Global Climate Impact
Coming El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts
Livescience
Image: Livescience
A new forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that this year's El Niño could become the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific expected to rise significantly. This event poses serious implications for global temperatures and food security amid ongoing climate challenges.
- 01The forecast predicts sea surface temperatures could rise 5.4°F (3°C) above average by December 2023, with some scenarios exceeding 7.2°F (4°C).
- 02If realized, this El Niño could surpass the record events of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998, which both peaked at 2.3°C (4.1°F) above average.
- 03El Niño events disrupt global weather patterns, leading to severe consequences such as droughts and floods, impacting agriculture and food security.
- 04The World Meteorological Organization estimates an 80% chance of El Niño forming before September and a 90% chance before November 2023.
- 05UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasizes the urgent need for climate action to mitigate the effects of this impending El Niño.
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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has issued a warning that the upcoming El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded, with sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific expected to rise 5.4°F (3°C) above average by December 2023. Some predictions suggest temperatures could exceed 7.2°F (4°C). This El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, may surpass the previous record events of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998, both of which had significant global impacts. The World Meteorological Organization has indicated an 80% chance of the phenomenon developing before September and a 90% chance by November. The implications of this event are particularly concerning given the current global food insecurity exacerbated by conflicts such as the Iran war. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for urgent climate action to address the challenges posed by this El Niño, emphasizing that it will add further heat to an already warming planet.
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The anticipated El Niño could exacerbate global food insecurity and disrupt agricultural production worldwide, particularly in regions already affected by climate-related challenges.
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