A recent report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates that 52% of long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35% or less—on military actions made on Polymarket are successful. This is significantly higher than the 25% win rate for all political markets and just 14% for all markets on the platform. The findings raise concerns about the potential for insider trading, especially as US prosecutors recently charged a soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, for placing bets worth $33,034 on military operations while possessing classified information. This case marks the first prosecution in the US for insider trading on prediction markets. The ACDC warns that military and defense markets are particularly susceptible to insider trading, which threatens information security and disadvantages regular bettors. Earlier this year, similar charges were brought against an Israeli reservist and a civilian for betting on military operations using classified information.