Traders on Kalshi have increased their forecast for stagflation risks to nearly 40% by the end of 2026, a significant rise from 11% just three months prior. This update follows the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 3.8% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index for April 2023, marking the highest inflation rate since May 2023. Additionally, wholesale prices saw their largest annual increase since 2022. Analysts are also predicting a 65% chance that inflation will exceed 4.5% this year, considerably higher than FactSet's consensus of 2.8%. The current unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, remaining above 4% since May 2024. The likelihood of a soft landing for the economy, which would entail a gradual slowdown without high inflation or recession, has dropped to just 21%, down from 55% in early March. In contrast, traders on Polymarket estimate stagflation risks at 22% and the chances of a soft landing at 32%.