The outlook for crude oil prices remains bullish, with Brent crude projected to reach $90 per barrel by Q4-2026. This revision stems from ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for 20% of global oil flows. Recent conflicts have led to a significant supply shock, removing an estimated 7.5 to 9.1 million barrels per day from the market and causing global inventories to draw down at a record pace of 11-12 million barrels per day in April. The cumulative inventory loss could reach 1.8 billion barrels by the end of 2026. Additionally, the UAE's planned exit from OPEC in May 2026 may allow for increased oil production, as the country has a capacity of nearly 4 million barrels per day. However, sustained high prices could lead to demand destruction, with expectations of a 1.7 million barrels per day contraction in global oil demand in Q2-2026 due to rising fuel costs and weaker industrial activity. Overall, the situation indicates a higher-than-expected price trajectory and significant economic risks.