The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil transport, is currently under scrutiny as prediction markets assess its reopening timeline amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Traders on Polymarket assign a 40% chance that the Strait will reopen before June 30, 2026, with an 84% probability of normal traffic resuming by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Kalshi bettors estimate a 33% chance of pre-war traffic levels returning by June and a 77% chance by year-end. These predictions come following recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian missile sites, which were deemed necessary for the protection of American troops. President Donald Trump has called for a renewed agreement with Iran, suggesting that a diplomatic resolution could be on the horizon. As a result of these developments, oil prices have decreased, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at $91.95 per barrel.