Banking Sector Faces Earnings Cuts Amid Pressure on Net Interest Margins
Bank stocks under pressure as analysts trim earnings, targets on NIM concerns
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Analysts have lowered earnings growth forecasts and target prices for banking stocks for FY27 due to concerns over net interest margins (NIMs) amid high funding costs and slow deposit growth. The ET Banks index has dropped nearly 6% in 2026, underperforming the broader market.
- 01Analysts cut earnings growth forecasts for banking stocks for FY27 due to NIM concerns.
- 02Only four out of 29 banks reported year-on-year NIM improvement in December 2025.
- 03The ET Banks index fell nearly 6% in 2026, compared to a 10% drop in the BSE Sensex.
- 04Deposit growth improved to 12.7%, but credit growth surged to 14.5%.
- 05Analysts expect term deposit rates to remain high due to intense competition.
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Analysts have reduced earnings growth forecasts and target prices for banking stocks for FY27, primarily due to concerns over net interest margins (NIMs). The ET Banks index has declined nearly 6% in 2026, reflecting broader market weakness, as the BSE Sensex fell 10%. Despite a slight improvement in deposit growth to 12.7% in December 2025, it lagged behind a 14.5% surge in credit growth. Only four out of 29 banks reported a year-on-year improvement in NIMs, down from ten banks in the previous year. Analysts from JM Financial Institutional Securities noted an increasing reliance on higher-cost funding, which is pressuring NIMs, prompting broad-based earnings cuts across banks for FY27-28. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has also slightly reduced its annualized earnings growth estimate to 16.1% from 16.5% for banks under its coverage, citing ongoing challenges in attracting low-cost deposits. As competition for deposits intensifies, banks are expected to face persistent challenges in mobilizing low-cost funding.
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The pressure on net interest margins could lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, as banks may increase interest rates on loans to maintain profitability.
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