The March 2026 quarter is poised to be favorable for upstream oil and gas producers in India, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) expected to rise between 6-49%. This growth is attributed to a significant increase in Brent crude prices, which averaged $81 per barrel, marking a 28% sequential rise. Major players like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India are anticipated to see Ebitda increases of 23% and 49%, respectively.

Conversely, oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) are likely to experience profit squeezes, with Ebitda projected to decline by 8-50% despite revenue growth of 17-30%. This is due to lower product realisations and a sharp drop in marketing margins, which fell to approximately ₹1.7 per litre from ₹5.2 in the previous quarter. LPG under-recoveries for OMCs are expected to rise dramatically to around ₹10,000 crore, driven by increased global LPG prices amid ongoing supply disruptions in West Asia.

The gas sector is also facing challenges, with city gas distribution companies expected to report weaker performance due to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and rising spot prices. Overall, India's gas demand is estimated to have declined by 10% sequentially, affecting profitability across the gas value chain.