Jefferies Reports Gold Enters Consolidation Phase After Retail Buying Surge
Jefferies says Gold enters consolidation phase after retail-driven frenzy buying this year
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Global investment firm Jefferies has announced that gold has entered a consolidation phase following a retail-driven buying frenzy in key markets such as India, China, and the United States. The report notes a significant decline in gold imports in India, reflecting a slowdown in demand, while gold mining companies focus on shareholder returns and disciplined capital management.
- 01Gold has entered a consolidation phase after a surge in retail buying.
- 02India's gold imports dropped sharply from $12.1 billion in January to $3.1 billion in March.
- 03Mining companies are prioritizing shareholder returns over aggressive expansion.
- 04The North American gold mining sector is projected to generate $36 billion in free cash flow this year.
- 05Jefferies maintains a 10% exposure to gold mining stocks in global portfolios.
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Jefferies, a global investment firm, has reported that the gold market is currently in a consolidation phase following a strong surge in retail-driven buying late last year and early this year. This trend was particularly evident in major markets including India, China, and the United States. The report highlighted that India recorded gold imports worth $14.7 billion in October and $12.1 billion in January, but this momentum sharply reversed, with imports falling to $3.1 billion in March. Jefferies described this as a healthy adjustment period for the market. Additionally, the report noted a shift in focus among gold mining companies towards shareholder returns, such as increased dividends and stock buybacks, rather than aggressive expansion strategies, contrasting with the previous bull market in gold mining stocks that peaked in 2011. The North American gold mining sector is expected to generate approximately $36 billion in free cash flow in the current calendar year. Jefferies plans to maintain its exposure to gold mining stocks, with weightings of 10% in global portfolios and 11% in Asia ex-Japan portfolios, and may increase this exposure if gold prices approach the lower end of the estimated trading range of $3,800 to $4,000 per ounce.
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The decline in gold imports may affect local jewelers and consumers in India, potentially leading to higher prices due to reduced availability.
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