CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler has indicated that Bitcoin has lost its structural bullish momentum, entering a risk-off phase characterized by unconfirmed price recoveries. The on-chain Impulse indicator, which measures underlying demand, has fallen below zero, historically marking a shift from confirmed uptrends to bear market conditions. This decline coincides with a significant drop in institutional demand, as reflected by a 97% collapse in Bitcoin ETF flow momentum from its peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 to just $362.8 million currently.

Adler emphasizes that macroeconomic factors, such as high Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions, can overshadow on-chain signals, leading to what he terms 'override mode.' In this environment, even positive on-chain data may not predict market movements reliably. Furthermore, the Coinbase Premium Index serves as a crucial indicator of US demand; a negative reading suggests that rising prices may not be supported by genuine American institutional buying. Adler's comprehensive seven-layer framework analyzes various indicators, consistently pointing towards risk-off conditions and unconfirmed bounces, indicating that the structural case for Bitcoin's next upward movement remains incomplete until the Impulse indicator recovers above zero.