Experts have warned that control over the Strait of Hormuz is a critical 'lifeline' for the Iranian regime, which is grappling with severe economic challenges. In a recent counter-proposal to the United States, Iran demanded the unrestricted sale of its oil and the reopening of the strait, among other conditions. Dr. Raz Zimmt from the Institute for National Security Studies highlighted that while easing sanctions could offer temporary relief, it would not resolve Iran's deep-seated economic issues. He emphasized the need for concrete commitments from Iran regarding its nuclear program, as there are no guarantees of disarmament in the current negotiations. The situation has been further complicated by internal unrest in Iran, fueled by financial instability and an internet blackout that restricts access to global markets.

Experts like Maj. (res.) Alexander Grinberg echoed these sentiments, warning that the absence of a clear commitment from Iran to dismantle its nuclear capabilities poses a significant risk. The US's perceived reluctance to engage militarily has weakened its bargaining power, leading to concerns that Tehran may exploit the situation. Gulf states, having endured Iranian aggression, are reassessing their security strategies, with some viewing Israel as a destabilizing force in the region. This evolving dynamic could hinder efforts to strengthen regional alliances like the Abraham Accords, as countries seek a way to coexist with Iran.