Oil Prices Remain Below $100 Amid Iran-Israel Conflict Due to China's Influence
Why oil is still below $100 despite the Iran-Israel war: The China factor

Image: Moneycontrol
Despite ongoing conflict in West Asia, oil prices have not surpassed $100 per barrel due to diplomatic efforts, increased OPEC+ supply, and reduced demand from China. The situation impacts global crude supply and has significant implications for countries like India, which relies heavily on oil imports.
- 01Brent crude prices peaked at $98 but remained below $100 despite a 14% cut in global crude supplies due to the conflict.
- 02China, the largest oil importer, has reduced its crude purchases, relying on existing stockpiles, which has limited price increases.
- 03India's crude import dependence is around 88%, making it sensitive to global oil price fluctuations.
- 04The Reserve Bank of India maintained its repo rate at 5.25% amid the energy crisis, influenced by the current oil price stability.
- 05Analysts warn that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a resurgence in Chinese demand could lead to significant price increases.
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Despite the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, oil prices have surprisingly remained below $100 per barrel. Brent crude reached nearly $98 following missile exchanges but settled around $94. The conflict has reduced global oil supplies by approximately 14%, yet prices have not surged due to three main factors: ongoing diplomatic ceasefire signals, increased output from OPEC+, and a significant decrease in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. China has been utilizing its stockpiles instead of purchasing new crude, leading to a 20% drop in imports year-on-year. For India, which relies on imports for 88% of its crude consumption, the situation is critical as global price movements directly affect its economy. The Reserve Bank of India has kept interest rates steady, citing the current oil price stability as a factor. However, experts caution that this balance may not last, as a prolonged conflict or a return to higher Chinese demand could push prices significantly higher.
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India's economy is heavily affected by global oil prices, with every dollar increase impacting its import bill and currency value.
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