As tensions escalate between the US and Iran, the perspectives of Israeli officials and Gulf states diverge sharply. Senior Israeli officials believe that US President Donald Trump is poised to launch a military strike against Iran, stating, “It's not a question of if, but when.” Conversely, Gulf state leaders argue that Trump is unlikely to attack, prioritizing the avoidance of skyrocketing oil prices ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in November. They contend that while Trump may issue threats, he will ultimately seek a diplomatic solution to prevent a regional energy crisis.

The Gulf states, which lack advanced missile defense systems like Israel's, are particularly concerned about the potential fallout from a military conflict, including missile strikes on vital infrastructure. As a result, they have formed an informal coalition urging Trump not to proceed with military action. Trump has indicated that a deal beneficial to the Gulf states would also serve his interests, reinforcing the notion that he prefers negotiation over conflict. Despite the possibility of limited military operations, the Gulf states would face significant risks without achieving regime change in Iran.