Analysts Adjust Rupee Forecasts Following RBI Measures and Oil Price Drop
Analysts see RBI measures steadying rupee, push back depreciation forecasts
Image: The Economic Times
The Indian rupee gained strength as crude oil prices fell, with analysts revising depreciation forecasts following the Reserve Bank of India's new measures to attract dollar inflows. The rupee is currently trading at 95.63 per dollar, with expectations of it stabilizing around 94 by September.
- 01The Indian rupee strengthened to 95.63 per dollar, up 0.1% from its previous close.
- 02Goldman Sachs revised its rupee forecast from 97 per dollar to 94 over the next year.
- 03The RBI's new measures include allowing leverage for NRI deposits and discounted swaps for banks' overseas borrowing.
- 04Brent crude oil prices dropped by 1% to $93.26 per barrel, positively impacting Asian currencies.
- 05Citi analysts expect the USDINR to trend towards 93 as market concerns about balance of payments risks diminish.
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The Indian rupee appreciated on Tuesday, trading at 95.63 per dollar, buoyed by a decline in crude oil prices and new measures from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aimed at attracting dollar inflows. Analysts have revised their depreciation forecasts, with Goldman Sachs moving its prediction from 97 per dollar to 94 over the next year. MUFG also adjusted its forecast, expecting the rupee to stabilize around 94 by the end of the September quarter, a shift from its earlier estimate of 95.80. The RBI's recent policy measures include allowing leverage for Non-Resident Indian (NRI) deposits and offering discounted swaps for banks' overseas borrowings, implemented to counter the rupee's year-to-date decline of nearly 8% to a record low of 96.96. The rupee's recent fluctuations highlight its vulnerability to oil price volatility, particularly amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have seen a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Analysts at Citi anticipate that the rupee could move towards 93 as concerns about balance of payments risks lessen and the RBI builds its foreign exchange reserves.
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The RBI's measures are expected to stabilize the rupee, potentially affecting import costs and inflation.
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